Sports Statistics: the False Friend of Online Bettors!
The world of online sports betting evolves with sport. Most sports have become the playground of statisticians. Everything is controlled, evaluated, compared. This drift where some will say that this professionalization of sport was reserved for American sports:
- American Football
- Ice Hockey
Today, nothing is spared. Can you tell me why this is so negative? Well because it changes the essence of team sport to an addition of individuality and if it changes the sport you bet on, it will change the way you bet.
You will find sports statistics from everywhere; this is the global trend!
Today, the objective is to decontaminate you from this sports video game culture so that you can make sports statistics an ally without becoming intellectually dependent on them. The danger is simply to go mad and, under the pretext of rationality, fail in the greatest irrationality. Statistics are like smartphones. You can see the world through it, but you’ll miss the essentials.
The Law of Series or Understanding Probabilities
This is the trap. However, we don’t seem to see her everywhere as if she were the shadow of Murphy’s Law. This law has never been scientifically proven. And yet against all mathematical logic, sports specialists and those who pretend to be sports betting pros, just talk about it. When I hear “Team x hasn’t won in 10 years in the stadium of y”. Should this fact factor into your bets? What should I think? That a voodoo bewitched the X team, but only in this stadium? That the conjunction of the stars above my head also influences this poor team x? Be careful, we always try to rationalize, to find explanations for the unfathomable. From their pulpits, they will explain to us that this creates a psychological shock. Like when a new trainer arrives… And if you listen to them, you will therefore play on the series.
You are going to bet on something irrational and therefore make a toss up. Olympique de Marseille has not won against the Girondins in Bordeaux since 1977. So should we play Bordeaux? Well in the end, there are more draws than wins for the Girondins de Bordeaux in the last 20 years for this meeting. Never forget that each match has an independent story. And don’t listen to advice without checking it!
For the Most Curious of You, Here Is an Explanation
“[Editor’s note] This was the case in 2005 with five crashes between August 2 and 23. More than 300 victims in twenty days. Did that mean that there was a relaxation in aircraft maintenance, in air traffic control, a fateful “cap” in the aging of aircraft?
In the previous ten years, there were approximately 20,000 take-offs per day and one accident for every 500,000 flights. The probability of an accident is therefore 1 in 500,000. The probability that there are 5 crashes at the same time is therefore very close to 0 and therefore almost impossible. But the real question is how likely are 5 crashes to occur in a 22 day period any time of the year. Let’s move on to the somewhat complex calculations. The result is that the probability is 0.1, or a “chance” in 10 of observing such a series during the year. This is not negligible and allows us to question chance.
Chance exists and it is a mathematical fact. The complexity is that mathematically it is impossible to demonstrate. And yes, online sports betting leads to everything and even to asking existential questions. Morality: Better to believe in chance than in the so-called law of series. Chance guarantees that you are vigilant to find the right parameters and therefore the right statistics to optimize your chances of winning at online bookmakers. Reflection and study are the only laws to which you must devote yourself.
So back to football because it is probably the sport or statistics that have done the most harm and are the most poorly managed by bettors and observers. Take the great assists scam. It’s really NBA statistics or video games that have nothing to do with football and even less with your bets.
The only way to estimate the importance of playing in the team, you are going straight into the wall. We come to one essential thing: WATCH the MATCHES. The truth is before your eyes. If you want to have an entertaining, but also totally creepy experience, all you have to do is watch a match and then read the press review about that match. You will fall backwards. And the other experience is studying the stats of a game and then watching it. So you will see that a team with 3 shots on target could have been less dangerous than their opponent who had 3 off target. That possession stats don’t make sense.
Statistics, Then Everything Is Good to Throw Away?
Absolutely not. Statistics disconnected from reality are to be avoided. The ones that are most important are the ones that give you an overall idea of the shape of a team. With rare exceptions loans, it is necessary to look at a collective. Is he comfortable at home, is his defense porous, how does he play against the big teams. You will be able to get into the tactical aspect and you will be on the right path. They can be used to estimate the form of a player if you like to bet on a scorer at online bookmakers for example.